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Feb 15, 2026

Why Vladimir Putin Is Trying to Settle the Iran Conflict

By proposing mediation in the Iran conflict, Vladimir Putin appears to be pursuing a dual objective: protecting a strategic partner while also using the opportunity to strengthen Russia’s geopolitical influence in the Middle East.

Within just one week, the Russian president held two phone conversations with Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian. The calls took place as Iran faced a large-scale airstrike campaign carried out by the United States and Israel, which reportedly resulted in the deaths of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior officials.

According to a statement from the Kremlin press office on March 10, Putin reaffirmed Russia’s consistent position in favor of de-escalating the conflict as quickly as possible and resolving disputes through political and diplomatic means. Pezeshkian, in turn, expressed appreciation for Russia’s support, particularly humanitarian aid sent to Iran.

However, neither side mentioned any form of military assistance, even though Russia and Iran established a comprehensive strategic partnership in January 2025. Moscow has also emphasized that Iran has not made any request for military support so far.

According to Steve Rosenberg, a Russia analyst for BBC, the relationship between the two countries has not reached the level of a formal mutual defense treaty. Instead, Russia has offered to act as a mediator in the current confrontation between Iran and the United States and Israel.

During a phone call on March 9 with U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin shared “several ideas aimed at achieving a rapid diplomatic solution to the Iran conflict,” drawing on discussions with leaders from Gulf countries, the Iranian president, and other regional figures, according to the Kremlin.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that any diplomatic resolution would require coordination among multiple parties, suggesting that Moscow is seeking to position itself as a cautious intermediary rather than rushing into mediation.

“This wording indicates that Russia is attempting to present itself as a reliable mediator while still maintaining influence over how the conflict unfolds,” said analyst Sana Khan from Modern Diplomacy.

Khan added that by signaling its willingness to help negotiate, Russia is demonstrating that it remains a necessary interlocutor in any potential settlement, which could strengthen its standing with both Washington and Tehran.

The Only Realistic Option

In recent months, Russia has actively participated in diplomatic efforts involving Israel, Syria, and Iran, seeking to prevent an already unstable region from sliding into a broader conflict.

At the end of January, senior Iranian national security official Ali Larijani met with Putin at the Kremlin as Tehran urgently sought ways to prevent new threats of attacks from the United States related to its nuclear and missile programs.

Earlier that month, Putin had also spoken with leaders of Israel and Iran, offering to help both sides find common ground and avoid escalation while Iran was experiencing internal turmoil amid anti-government protests.

According to the Kremlin’s summary of one of the calls, President Pezeshkian told Putin that Tehran was working to restore domestic stability. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the Russia-Iran strategic partnership and advancing joint economic projects in multiple sectors.

At the end of February, the two countries’ navies conducted joint exercises in the Indian Ocean, seemingly intended to demonstrate solidarity and deter potential military action by the United States and Israel. Yet only a week later, U.S. and Israeli forces launched a major strike campaign, beginning with an airstrike on Tehran on February 28.

According to Simon Saradzhyan, director of the Russia Matters Project at the Harvard Kennedy School, the Kremlin may fear that the current crisis could lead to regime change in Iran, which would have negative geopolitical and economic consequences for Russia.

However, direct military intervention in Iran—similar to Russia’s involvement in Syria—is not considered a wise option for Moscow, according to Andrey Kortunov, former head of the Russian International Affairs Council and a member of the Valdai Discussion Club.

Kortunov explained that the strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran does not impose obligations comparable to Russia’s mutual defense treaty with North Korea, which requires Moscow to support Pyongyang if it becomes involved in a conflict.

In contrast, the agreement with Iran only commits both sides to refraining from hostile actions if one party becomes involved in a conflict. As a result, Kortunov believes Russia will avoid any direct military involvement in support of Iran because the risks would be too great.

He added that Moscow appears more interested in Washington’s potential mediating role in the war in Ukraine, meaning Russia is likely to prioritize diplomatic efforts rather than military intervention that could intensify and prolong the conflict.

For Russia, diplomacy may therefore be the only viable approach—allowing Moscow to maintain relations with Iran while preventing the conflict from spreading and protecting its remaining economic and military interests in the Middle East. Russia and Iran continue to share multiple strategic interests, including regional infrastructure projects, nuclear and military cooperation, and efforts to circumvent Western sanctions.

Strategic Calculations

Proposing mediation in the Iran conflict could also be a way for Russia to deepen relations with the United States, according to Rosenberg.

“He wants to help,” Trump reportedly said after his March 9 phone call with Putin. However, the U.S. president added that Russia should instead focus on ending the war in Ukraine.

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